Surprise Expectations of Consumer Every Time

When we say we market is changing we should ask ourselves who is changing the market? If it is not you, changes done by your company will not yield significant gain.
I am going to discuss changes in market dynamics with respect to introduction of new products. If a company is not leading the product innovation in the market, company is bound to compromise on the bottom line. In such situation the new product will be new to the portfolio of the company only but not to the market. A real new product introduction means surprise to market.
In one of my earlier post I discussed the correlation between new product introduction and market share. I listed some variables like working capital of channel, rotation of working capital and pace of introduction of new products should be properly planned well before laying out the product road map. It seems theoretical but I convincingly suggest to focus on following parameters at the time of introducing a breakthrough product to make sure that the planed gains are intact:
1. Pace of introduction. It is a philosophy of a company’s strategy which defines dynamism and youthfulness. High risk with high returns. If executed properly, it will establish a product leadership image of the company. Every successful introduction will fetch a yield, during its life cycle, much more than the cost incurred in ten mediocre or failed introductions. When we say pace, it’s important to assume the competition will copy it in no time. Pace is introduction of real products in the market, consistently with a motto to surprise expectations of the customer every time. In competitive environment it will give you a first mover advantage with better sales realization and in monopolistic environment it will increase barriers on entry of competition. The pace of introduction can be decided based on the intensity of existing competition.
2. Working capital of channel. Only new product introduction may not give the desired growth. Think this in a way that if cumulative working capital of all the channel partners is constant, the retail will only replace the existing portfolio with new one. This may give better top line because of higher realization from new product but overall volume will remain constant. If a company’s thrust is to expand, the sales volume will increase only with increase of selling capacity of the channel. This can be done with penetration into untapped market. More distributors or more retailers means more working capital. If such distribution plans are in place the real volumetric growth of new products can be assessed.
3. Cycle time: Or the speed of rotation of working capital of selling channel. This is the area which any company in any industry will love to improve. This is also a measure of supply chain performance. With the proposed implementation of GST (in India) we will see a radical shift in collaborative supply chain management with better distribution at lower cost. A longer term strategy on depot and inventory planning in line with product road map and futuristic capacity planning is required.

COST is a Strategy

Post financial crisis of 2008, followed by fear of sustained recession, most of the players across various industries have realized the importance of four letter word COST. I define COST as a strategy which has emerged out of recession. The startegic definition of COST is explained below.

C : Collaborative Operations

O : Optimization of Resources

S : System Thinking

T : Termination

Collaborative operations: Beyond manufacturing and integration of information, beyond outsourcing, I foresee the impact of globalization will give opportunity to collaborative operations in all areas of business like sourcing, logistics and services. We have examples of airline industry where companies made a cluster through code sharing. They did it after a lot of bleeding and at the time when they were at verge of survival and death. Functions like procurements, ticketing and operations, not only simplified with a significant reduction in cost but also given an opportunity to focus on brand building and consumer experience. The other industries need not to wait for situation to be worsened to consider collaboration. They should move proactively to chart out collaborative global sourcing, logistics and customer services.

Collaborative logistics: In India a big opportunity in on the way to shake all the industries is the implementation of GST by 2010. This can open the doors of collaborative transport, warehousing and distribution. All third party logistic companies have an opportunity to expand their services. Now few companies already started planning out such options. See the following quote of Mr Pradipta Mukherjee, GCPL Vice Chairman, in one of the interview given to business standard recently:

“We would be looking at re-doing our supply chain and logistics costs once the goods and services tax (GST) is implemented from April 2010, and CST is phased out from 4 per cent to nil. We also intend to consolidate the FMCG companies in the Godrej Group, and so, post-GST implementation, we would be looking at how the group FMCG companies can get together to use common depots and supply chain. This would not only reduce cost of operations but also enable reduction of inventory levels”

Optimization of Resources: There is no end to the upper end of required resources for any task. All we need is adequate resource planning. Optimization of resources is nothing but defining just adequate numbers to all the direct cost like manpower and infrastructure. Remember all the adequate numbers can also be optimized. So it’s a continuous process. I say optimum and not the minimum as its not a cost reduction strategy, but its an strategy which will give maximum of all your manpower and infrastructure by challenging their capacity or output on a continuous basis.

System Thinking: I am a fan of Deming philosophy. So I believe that both success and failure are the outcome of good or bad systems and not the manpower. Investment in system actually reduces cost by enhancing the outcomes and efficiencies. The challenge here is not only implementation of world class practices but also how philosophy and strategy of a company can be inculcated in system itself.

Termination: This is law of nature that end of everything is certain. I suggest just deciding the end before nature does. So it will be a wise decision to get rid of not performing assets, business, and manpower as early as possible. This will reduce negative energy of the organization significantly to focus on performance and new opportunities.

Though ‘COST’ seems to be a strategy of recession manager, I feel its reliability even in better times.

Need of different approach to anti piracy

The view mentioned in the topic will look controversial if the economy attached is not explained. Piracy costing more than 5 lakh jobs and a loss of around one billion dollar to bollywood. See the article in ET ” Pirates of the Indian Ocean” on 18.07.2009. This is the virtual premium industry losing in the name of intellectual property. Let us not confuse my views as I am not advocating piracy, but in turn I want to highlight some of the associated economics and industry inefficiencies.

The first point is the millions of dollars of small scale unorganised industry spread all across India in manufacturing low cost VCD and DVD players. This is one of the largest unaccounted source of self employed youth who earned their skill in small assembling of these consumer electronics to the trade in the supply chain reaching a customer in rural most areas at lowest cost. The point to mention here is the incentive of the rural consumers in buying a vcd or dvd player is the availability of his favourite movie at rs 10 to rs 20 per vcd or dvd. If the cost of same increased to Rs 150 to Rs250, the self employed industry of vcd and dvd players will be crashed.

The second point is the inefficiency of the industry in providing their intellectual properties at reasonable price. If piracy can, if organised players like Moser Baer can, why not others? The government should first set pricing regulatory norms for the industry before taking any harsh action on the piracy. An efficient and transparent price mechanism will protect the incentives of the small scale industries I mentioned in first point.

The third point is different as I agree in favour of anti piracy because of its malicious supply chain originating in Pakistan. This could cost an illegal organised system of flow of goods across borders, the side effects of which need not to be explained. Government should make special task force to bust these systems. Piracy would automatically be curbed.

Recession and Organisational Restructuring

Cautious recovery of stock market and second innings of government has changed the Indian economic discussions from ‘recession’ to ‘growth’. Just few months back when various companies were innovative in changing practices to fight recession by reducing cost are now thinking optimistic for expansion and growth. I feel the greatest gain of last crisis to Indian industries are cost consciousness with eye on opportunity for growth.

In this blog i want to discuss the strategies adopted by various companies on their organizational restructuring by either splitting up for growth or consolidation for cost rationalization. Which strategy is better? Should it be a role of a recession manager or a regular activity in regular time.

Here are the examples of various companies who used either consolidation or expansion for efficiency or growth or vice-versa in last few months:

1. Bharati Airtel recasts business into nine arms to increase focus on non voice business like mobile commerce, entertainment, media, internet, enterprise services and small & medium businesses.

2. Dabur decides to split sales force, stockists to prop up market share

3. Tata Tea Brews plan for consolidation by merging tea, water and soft drink business into single entity to simplify operations and rationalize cost.

4. In the similar consolidation line Godrej announces merger of its three businesses; Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) and two of its joint ventures — Godrej Sara Lee (GSL) and Godrej Hershey’s (GHL).

What Motivates You?

Have you ever tried to identify the key drivers which define your integrity and commitment to the organization you are working for? Lets look this question beyond pay cheques, promotions or other best HR practices. Also beyond morale and value system we have learned in our upbringing. I’ve tried to find out the answer out my own industry experience and discovered that at least one or more than one of the following four drivers are must to define your commitment and the associated approach to your work in any organization or industry:

1. The degree of believe in the product or services you are working for. The more believe more the association. The degree of believe should be to the extent that your personality can be identified with the product or services you are in.
2. The feeling of ‘WOW’ on the present strategies or future plans of the company. It is company’s top management responsibility to make this clear and transparent down the line. It could be fully or partially in your hand too.
3. There should be a leader in the organization who should be inspiring enough to be your role model. If there are such personalities, you will find that your personality will take a radical shift. If there are no such personalities in your organization, well, there’s an opportunity.
4. Last but not the least the clarity of your own carrier growth path. It should match your ambitions and futuristic financial requirements.

Well to find your motivation just asses the product or services, the strategies, the leaders of you organization and your own ambitions.

Correlation between new product introduction and share of market

Lot of companies use new product introduction as their key strategy to increase there market share. Recently two companies LG and SONY announced same strategy. (You may refer following links from Economic Times for the news: LG and SONY) . Though the strategy is commonly use by various companies, I tried to validate the hypothesis that new product introductions boost market share and found following parameters (related with new product introduction only ) determine correlation between new product introduction and market share growth:

1. New product introduction helps in companies top line growth as product realization increases with speed of introduction. It is simply correlated with the differentiation till the point when the new variant becomes commodity in market. Companies with strong R&D leverage it with new products all time. Because of differentiation they fetch better price too. However, competition catches very fast especially in consumer durable industry and so the price advantage of innovation starts eroding. New product introduction should be a continuous process for the companies having strong R&D.

2. Even though top line grows in revenue term in point no. 1 above, it does not guarantee growth in market share in terms of volume of turnover. Two factors determine change in market share. One the selling capability of the channel which could be measured by working capital of sellers which in totality remains constant. If working capital of a dealer is constant it will cannibalize existing product in very first stage itself. Two is the cannibalization, which if planned properly, can help to reduce competitors’ shelf share in multi franchise sellers’ network. To increase working capital of selling network, companies should focus on wider distribution by exploring new markets through efficient supply chain management.

3. Whether the new product is introduced in one of the existing categories in which company is present or in a new category itself. If it is in existing categories it should be targeted for better profit than market share. Introduction in new category can give incremental revenue subject to capability of selling network including the organization itself in terms of knowledge, experience, working capital, coverage and branding.

4. It’s not only quantity of new introduction which matters but also the speed at which it is introduced to end consumer. Assuming if the period required by competition to replicate the product after announcement of launch is fixed, a better speed of sampling, consumer awareness activities and distribution will uplift the revenue in launch to uptake period of product life before maturity, the point at which competitor enters with similar product.

There could me many more strategies to define growth in market share, however; the above argument is only limited to issues related with new product introduction only.

NANO, IPL and Politics

This month various news covered three different takes showing successful business strategies, government intelligence and fizzled opportunism. Nano, IPL and political fuzz summarize this week’s headline.

Nano was launched with not a real product but a promissory trust by Tata, which will be delivered from July this year to common people of India. The launch looked more like a financial strategy. By the way of advance booking Tata’s not only assessing their financial and supply chain requirement but also raising funds which could ease their financial hitch which is global in nature now. It makes good business sense. Nano is a real innovation which has demonstrated Indian capability in both manufacturing and strategy. Though, the people of India should be proud of it, a lot of anti Nano SMS campaign started rolling by some people I don’t know whom. But I know it is by those who lost the opportunity which was always there to explore but they did not dare to innovate. Tata’s should not worry about this negative propaganda as their target customers are those, most of whom are not very technology savvy. This is the case of lost opportunity but our political leaders do not lose many. Post IPL shifting news of political reactions, lot of leaders politicized this issue by criticizing government on the grounds of security and national pride. My personal views are in favor of government as they took a stand which seems to be hard and conservative but it is in favor of countries biggest event, the general elections. More than that I am sure it is based on some intelligence information. If it’s true, it’s good to hear that intelligence is in place and government has courage to keep national interest above their own political interests. BCCI, too, demonstrated a business innovation by making IPL, which is truly Indian domestic sport, a global brand. Except viewer’s turnover at the matches, all the business interests are saved. What a week with good show of business strategy, intelligence and opportunism.

RURAL CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH

One of the key indicators of domestic consumption is agricultural growth. Agriculture and allied activities contribute around 20 % of GDP and feeds more than 58 % population. Now in the recent economic crisis when we started looking inward, which was right in place earlier too, for overall growth, the emerging concern is the growth of Agriculture which defines consumption pattern of India. During tenth plan (2002 to 2007) agriculture grew by merely 2.3 % against 7.6% of overall GDP growth rate.
The key issues I want to raise is the role of Indian industries and government in developing rural infrastructure, education and health, deploying policy and participating in rural value chain, pricing, insurance, credit and microcredit. Recent global economic turmoil forced us to think beyond urban population to ensure sustainable growth. Companies like Hero Honda, Marico, HUL are outperforming in today’s scenario only because of their rural penetration. Two things are common in these companies. One their product is well designed product to suit rural taste supported by (two) matching delivery mechanism. Take example of Hero Honda whose basic models (main volume and revenue generators) are well positioned for common man’s requirement like fuel efficiency and reliability. Along with their product they have matching delivery network too with widest coverage in tier two and tier three cities. Bajaj, one of the competitors of Hero Honda, closely matched their rural network compared to Hero Honda but failed to position right product. But all these strategies are meant only to take share of rural expenditure. The Indian industries should think beyond that towards participation in rural value chain and infrastructure developments. ITC’s e-Choupal is a good example where the model is not only participating in farmer’s value chain but also simplifying companies supply chain. Such innovation creates value for both company and customer. From government perspective, we need radical changes in agriculture policy, pricing mechanism, credit and insurance to farmers. Along with these a healthy investment in infrastructure, education and health will give sustainable results in long term.

Realty and Retail

Though India’s GDP projections look good as made by World Economic Outlook (WEO) released recently by the IMF, India is likely to register a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.9 per cent in 2008-09, which may slip to 6.9 per cent in 2009-10; the effect of credit crunch is visible in two sectors; realty and retail.

In Mumbai most of the developers have discovered credit route from private financers at a very high cost of borrowing varies from 36 to 48% in last one to two months. This is in anticipation of better comeback of property demand. However the recent property expo was disappointing for such developers. The prices depend on demand which is most uncertain. Bangalore and Gurgaon prices have seen significant corrections and Mumbai it is expected soon by a minimum 20 to 30%.

Full post at wealthyson

Fundamentals of Indian economy

One financial crisis in US and the equity market in the whole world shaken up with significant decline. Fundamental equations of various industries are questioned and depression took over. How safe is Indian market? All analysis indicates no fundamental error but global depression and rumors have sufficient potential to prove these analysis wrong. I should be positive but negatives can not be ignored in sudden panic environment all across.
Can you estimate how much a panic environment may create a damage? Recent rumors on ICICI bank followed by crash of its stock price is just one of the several such examples. Deposit ratios and leverage of Indian banks are much healthier than that of several top performing banks of US and Europe and still the prices are falling. Again fundamentally nothing is that bad as it is reflected in falling stock prices. Another potential damage is redemption pressure on mutual funds creating a negative cycle of further depression by killing the option of Indian MFs to use their liquidity to invest in declining market.
Let us park rumors and depression aside for a moment and try to analyze some of the fundamental issues of Indian equity market which may affect future of market after stabilizing from current turmoil.
1. First and foremost is the question of decoupling of Indian economy from US. Is it really possible? In one of the interview with Uday Kotak, director of Kotak Mahindra bank recommends that India should stop depending on global flows and start relying more on its domestic savings and domestic ability. The only question to address is the future of globalised Indian industry like IT which triggered Indian GDP growth to more than 8% in past few years and attracted most of global inflows.
2. Second is actual estimate of GDP growth. If the current situation stays for some more time, it will affect the demand. Maintaining more than 7.5% growth will be a challenge. If it drops below 6.5% which is very unlikely as the fundamentals are still okay, the global inflows will be affected.
3. Third is competition with other emerging economies especially China for preferred investment destination. Both economies are having various strengths. The differences to asses are types of governance, service vs. manufacturing capabilities and fiscal deficit vs. fiscal surplus.
4. Fourth is monetary policy. On one hand; RBI announcing further rate cut by 150 basis point, on the other inflation is still above 11%. Further cut in CRR and SLR is expected to manage the current liquidity crisis with some boost to GDP. Monetary policy will be interesting to watch if the objective is to decouple Indian economies from developed countries as I discussed in point no one above. The challenge for the policy makers is how to address issues of both Inflation and growth together.
5. And finally Upcoming union elections and the result.